Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Asiatischen Volkswirtschaften are better known for their speed than their stability. From 1996 to 1998, por ejemplo, growth in cinco grandes South-East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) swung from 7.5% to minus 8.3% as the Asian financial crisis struck. Even now some highly open economies, such as Thailand, Singapore and Taiwan, remain more volatile than the global average. Exposed to international trade flows, their industrial output fluctuates like a twirling ribbon with every twitch of demand.

Pero el desarrollo de Asia is dominated by populous countries that rely increasingly on la demande intérieure to drive their economies. Household consumption contributed half of the growth of just over 6% Indonesia enjoyed in the year to the third quarter (its eighth consecutive quarter of growth at that pace). As exportações caíram from about 35% of GDP ten years ago to less than a quarter in 2011. Developing Asia’s combined current-account surplus, which reflects its dependence on foreign demand, more than halved from 2008 to 2011 and is expected to fall further dit jaar.

Азия стабилност also owes something to vraag management. Während der Finanzkrise in Asien crisis policymakers faced a dilemma. They could defend their exchange rates by raising interest rates. Mas isso mutuários aleijar. Or they could let their currencies fall and ease rates. But that would inflate the burden of foreign-currency debt, verlammende kredietnemers te.

В период после кризиса в регионе работал свой ​​путь выхода из этой ловушки. Most countries accumulated an impressive stock of hard-currency reserves and weaned themselves off foreign-bank loans in favour of fremd equity and local-currency bonds. parce que these liabilities were denominated in their own currency, eles não subir em valor quando a moeda caiu.

Това е освободил политиците да намали лихвените проценти, когато икономиката се забавя. Indonesia’s центральний банк, for example, slashed rates by three percentage points from December 2008 to August 2009. It cut rates by another point from October 2011 to February 2012. Thanks in part to its responsive central bank, Indonesia’s anno su anno tassi di crescita negli ultimi 20/4 sono stati i più stabili al mondo.

Mençur të politikës monetare was also one of the reasons cited for the Great Moderation enjoyed by the G7 ekonomitë. Another was the supposed depth and sophistication of the rich world’s financial systems, which, it was said, allowed households to smooth their spending, firms to diversify their borrowing and banks to unburden their balance-sheets. Both of these pillars of stability proved false comforts. Quia ratio non est penitus insedit Economists quam grauis magno moderamine desierit..

Verontrustend, grote mate van Azië has also been accompanied by sharply rising credit. According to Fred Neumann of HSBC, leverage is now higher than at any time since the Asian crisi finanziaria. This credit expansion may represent healthy “financial deepening”, which many economists believe is a cause of growth and stability. But rising leverage can also be a threat to stability. The late Hyman Minsky, among others, argued that drops in volatility allow firms and households to borrow more of the money they invest. Stability, in Minsky’s formulation, eventually becomes destabilising. Overleverage vereist geen overdreven optimisme, maar overdreven zekerheid, niet snelle groei, alleen maar gestage groei.

Din fericire, factorii de decizie politică din Asia never shared the West’s faith in self-correcting financial systems. The region has pioneered “macroprudential” regulations, designed to curb excessive credit and capital flows even without raising interest rates. In March, bijvoorbeeld, インドネシアは車やバイクローンの抵当権及び課し最小downpaymentsでローン資産価値比率を強化した。

Panie Neumann jest jednak sceptyczny, że zaostrzenie regulacji może zastąpić pieniężnej rodzaju. Macroprudential controls are not watertight, he notes. As long as capital remains cheap, money will leak. If the regulator lowers mortgage loan-to-value ratios, for example, banks may simply raise the appraised value of a home. Als toezichthouders belemmeren buitenlandse aankopen van onroerend goed, zoals Hong Kong net deed, zal buitenlanders zoeken inventieve manieren om de regels.

Saoirse Hong Cong to raise rates is constrained by its currency’s fixed link to the dollar, one of the few pegs to survive the Asian financial crisis. Other central banks do not have that excuse. Currency flexibility has given them the freedom to cut rates when growth slows. It should also allow them to raise rates when financial excess threatens—even if rates remain near zero in America, Europe and Japan. Ако стабилен растеж позволява на кредиторите или кредитополучатели да стане пренатоварени, тя може да "сее семената на собственото си унищожение", твърди г-н Нойман. Нищо велико за това.


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